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Peer-reviewed research points to faster warming, deeper droughts, and growing strain on water, food, health, and coasts

Global warming is no longer a distant prospect for South Africa. Over the past decade, scientists have documented rising temperatures, shifting rainfall, and more frequent extremes across the country and the wider southern African region. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record globally, at about 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 average, with the past ten years ranking as the ten warmest on record (WMO 2024 warmest year). Copernicus Climate Change Service data likewise show 2024 as the first calendar year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Copernicus 2024 climate summary). For South Africa, the question is not whether the climate is changing, but how quickly—and what that means for water, food, health, biodiversity, and the economy in the decades ahead.

A recognised climate hotspot

Southern Africa has been classified as a climate change “hotspot” in major international assessments because the region is already warm and dry, with limited adaptive capacity and heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture (IPCC AR6 Africa chapter). The Centre for Environmental Rights, summarising peer-reviewed literature for South Africa, notes that warming in the southern African interior has occurred at about twice the global average rate over recent decades, with systematic increases in extreme heat and fire-danger conditions (CER climate impacts briefing). South Africa’s first Biennial Transparency Report to the United Nations, submitted in December 2024, states that national temperatures are rising at roughly 1.5 times the global average (South Africa UNFCCC BTR 2024).

Researchers at the University of the Witwatersrand and the Agricultural Research Council told Mail & Guardian in December 2024 that parts of South Africa had already reached the 1.5°C warming threshold in monthly temperature records, with heatwaves and record highs reported across several provinces (Mail & Guardian: heat records 2024). A 2024 conference abstract from the TIPPECC research programme, drawing on CORDEX and CMIP6 simulations, reported near-future ensemble mean temperature increases of roughly 0.5 to 1.7 K under RCP2.6 and 0.8 to 3.2 K under RCP8.5 across southern African hotspot regions including South Africa (EGU24 TIPPECC abstract).

Heat, drought, and rainfall extremes

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report finds that climate change has already increased heat waves and drought on land across Africa, with high confidence for heat and medium confidence for drought (IPCC AR6 Africa chapter). Above 1.5°C of global warming, drought frequency and duration are projected to increase over large parts of southern Africa; above 3°C, meteorological drought duration could roughly double in parts of the region, from about two months to four (IPCC AR6 Africa chapter). Drying is projected particularly for western and southwestern Africa, including South Africa’s winter-rainfall west (IPCC AR6 Africa chapter).

Large-ensemble modelling studies sharpen that picture. Research published in Climatic Change in 2021 found that without strong global emissions targets, there is more than a 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures in western, central, and eastern South Africa will increase threefold relative to the current climate’s two-standard-deviation range of variability (Climatic Change: hydroclimatic risks). The same study reported that risks of decreased precipitation in western and central South Africa are three to four times higher than risks of increased precipitation, though aggressive climate targets could delay regional hydroclimatic risks by roughly 30 years (Climatic Change: hydroclimatic risks).

A 2022 Frontiers in Climate study covering ten southern African countries, including South Africa, projected that under a higher-emissions “Paris Forever” scenario, one-in-20-year low-rainfall events could occur twice as often in most of the region by the 2060s, while one-in-20-year high-rainfall events could occur three to four times as often in northeastern South Africa (Frontiers: Southern Africa extremes). Temperature increases of 0.5 to 0.7°C are projected in the next 20 years under that pathway, with a further 1.1 to 1.5°C between the 2020s and 2060s (Frontiers: Southern Africa extremes).

South Africa has already experienced the human cost of such shifts. The 2015–2017 Western Cape drought, which brought Cape Town close to “Day Zero” water rationing, was made about three times more likely by anthropogenic climate change, according to a multi-method attribution study published in Environmental Research Letters (Oxford ORA: Western Cape drought attribution). World Weather Attribution reached a similar conclusion (WWA: Western Cape drought). A later Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study using high-resolution ensembles estimated that anthropogenic warming increased the likelihood of the 2015–2017 rainfall deficit by a factor of five to six, and projected that the probability of a similar multiyear deficit could rise from 0.7% to 25% by 2100 under an intermediate-emissions scenario (PNAS: Cape Town Day Zero drought risk). The IPCC likewise notes that the Cape Town drought was three times more likely because of human-caused climate change (IPCC AR6 Africa chapter).

Precipitation projections remain regionally uneven. A climate risk profile for southern Africa, drawing on CMIP5 data, projects that under RCP6.0 southwestern South Africa, central areas, and parts of neighbouring countries could become drier by 2080, while eastern South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini may see wetter conditions, with dry and wet periods becoming more extreme (Climate Risk Profile: Southern Africa). A 2022 Geoscientific Model Development review emphasises that roughly 70% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population depends on rain-fed agriculture, making any shift in rainfall patterns a matter of food security (GMD: precipitation southern Africa).

Water, agriculture, and the economy

Water and agriculture sit at the centre of South Africa’s exposure. The Presidency’s Climate Commission reported in 2024 that food and water are among the country’s most climate-vulnerable sectors, citing projected cereal-yield pressures, existing water scarcity, and limited dam storage per capita (Presidency Climate Commission: State of Climate Action 2024). South Africa’s UNFCCC transparency report warns that variable rainfall, more frequent droughts, and declining water quality threaten supplies for households, farms, and industry (South Africa UNFCCC BTR 2024).

A 2020 review in Water projected that southern Africa could see agricultural productivity fall by 15% to 50% under climate change, with the sharpest losses in drier western margins (Water: climate impacts on agriculture). Springer Nature research on southern African tipping points warns that reduced soil moisture, more heat-wave days, and higher fire danger could threaten maize production and cattle farming across the region, alongside risks of unprecedented heat affecting mortality and tropical cyclones making landfall further south than in the historical record (Springer: southern Africa tipping points).

Economic modelling adds a fiscal dimension. A 2022 Sustainability study using municipal panel data estimated that South Africa could lose about USD 1.82 billion on average by 2030 under an RCP4.5 pathway, rising to about USD 2.48 billion by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario, with natural-resource and primary sectors hit hardest (MDPI Sustainability: economic growth impacts). The IPCC synthesis report warns that in the near term every region will face further increases in climate hazards, including reduced food production in some areas and higher heat-related mortality (IPCC AR6 Synthesis SPM).

Health, biodiversity, and the coast

Health impacts are already measurable. The 2024 Lancet Countdown country brief for South Africa reports rising exposure to health-threatening extreme heat, with associated increases in heat-related illness and mortality (Lancet Countdown 2024: South Africa). From 2019 to 2023, nearly 59% of South Africa’s land area experienced at least one month of extreme drought in a given year, with multi-month drought exposure rising sharply compared with 1950–1960 baselines (Lancet Countdown 2024: South Africa). Research in Limpopo Province linked non-optimal apparent temperature to roughly 9.5% of cardiovascular hospital admissions (MDPI IJERPH: CVD and temperature Limpopo). Scientists have developed ward-level heat-health vulnerability tools for South African towns, identifying elderly residents, infants, outdoor workers, and low-income communities as priority groups (MDPI IJERPH: HEAT tool). A 2023 systematic review concluded that climate change is widening health inequalities among vulnerable populations and that adaptation planning should give greater attention to mental and occupational health (MDPI IJERPH: health systematic review).

Along the coast, rising seas and more intense storms add another layer of risk. South Africa’s coastal adaptation planning documents note that global mean sea level is rising and accelerating, with measurable increases along the west coast in recent decades and growing exposure for infrastructure and settlements in low-lying coastal zones (ResearchGate: Coastal Adaptation Response Plan). The UNFCCC report identifies human settlements and infrastructure as sectors facing increased damage from flooding, storm surges, and sea-level rise (South Africa UNFCCC BTR 2024).

What mitigation and policy can change

Scientists stress that the scale of future harm depends heavily on global emissions pathways. The CER briefing contrasts “low mitigation futures” that could push global mean warming well above 3°C—with substantially higher risks for South Africa—against futures that limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, which require urgent emissions cuts including from major developing economies (CER climate impacts briefing). The 2021 Climatic Change ensemble study similarly finds that a 1.5°C global target by 2100 would leave late-century precipitation risks in South Africa comparable to those expected in the 2030s under an untargeted emissions pathway (Climatic Change: hydroclimatic risks).

Domestically, Parliament passed the Climate Change Act (Act 22 of 2024), assented to in July 2024 and commenced in March 2025, to enable a long-term just transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy (Gov.za: Climate Change Act 2024). The Presidency’s 2024 assessment, however, notes that South Africa’s readiness to mobilise adaptation investment has weakened amid inequality and institutional constraints, even as vulnerability in food and water systems has grown (Presidency Climate Commission: State of Climate Action 2024).

Outlook

Taken together, peer-reviewed research from the past decade paints a consistent picture: South Africa faces faster warming than the global average, a tilt toward deeper droughts in the west and centre, more volatile rainfall—including intense downpours in the northeast—and compounding pressures on water storage, crop yields, livestock, human health, and coastal communities. Attribution studies confirm that recent crises such as the Cape Town drought were made more likely by human-caused warming, and ensemble projections suggest similar events could become far more common this century without steep emissions cuts. The scientific literature also leaves room for adaptation—through climate-smart agriculture, water efficiency, heat-health planning, and coastal defence—but emphasises that the most severe regional risks are difficult to avoid if global temperatures rise well beyond 2°C. For policymakers, businesses, and communities, the evidence points to a narrowing window in which to prepare for a hotter, more hydrologically volatile South Africa.

Global warming and the effects expected in South Africa